The decision
A fictional learning app randomly assigns 5,000 users per arm. A higher ad cap raises weekly ad contribution by ₹4,500 but reduces paid upgrades from 135 to 120. Each upgrade contributes ₹400 over the measurement horizon.
Which ad cap maximizes combined contribution?
Worked solution
Reveal the visual and solution
- Use assigned users and a consistent horizon. The upgrade difference is 15 accounts, or 0.3 percentage points.
- Lost upgrade contribution is 15 × ₹400 = ₹6,000. Net impact is ₹4,500 − ₹6,000 = −₹1,500 before longer-term retention effects.
- Keep the original cap pending a longer test. Track day-seven retention, complaints and revenue by placement and device.