The decision
An online seller ships 2,000 orders at ₹1,000 and refunds 400. Variable cost is ₹580 on all shipped units. A size-guide pilot is expected to reduce refunds by 80, with an additional ₹30,000 fixed implementation cost.
Is the size-guide change worth rolling out?
Worked solution
Reveal the visual and solution
- Baseline retained revenue is ₹16 lakh and shipped variable cost is ₹11.6 lakh. This yields ₹4.4 lakh before acquisition and fixed costs.
- At unchanged shipments and costs, 80 avoided refunds increase revenue by ₹80,000. Less implementation, the modeled gain is ₹50,000, before any avoided reverse-logistics costs.
- Compare by size and product, and verify that conversion does not fall. Use the settled returns window before attributing improvement.